Score-Based Causal Discovery of Latent Variable Causal Models

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank deficiency tests), they may face empirical challenges such as testing-order dependency, error propagation, and choosing an appropriate significance level. These issues can potentially be mitigated by properly designed score-based methods, such as Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) (Chickering, 2002) in the specific setting without latent variables. Yet, formulating score-based methods with latent variables is highly challenging. In this work, we develop score-based methods that are capable of identifying causal structures containing causally-related latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we show that a properly formulated scoring function can achieve score equivalence and consistency for structure learning of latent variable causal models. We further provide a characterization of the degrees of freedom for the marginal over the observed variables under multiple structural assumptions considered in the literature, and accordingly develop both exact and continuous score-based methods. This offers a unified view of several existing constraint-based methods with different structural assumptions. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

Towards a holistic understanding of Selection Bias for Causal Effect Identification

Selection bias is pervasive in observational studies. For example, large scale biobanks data can exhibit ``healthy volunteer bias'' when respondents are healthier and of higher socio-economic status than the population they are meant to represent. Recovering causal effects from such sub-population is an important problem in causal inference, as estimating average treatment effects (ATE) from selected populations can result in a severely biased estimate of the ATE from the whole population. In this paper, we investigate the identifiability of the ATE under selection bias. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for ATE identifiability, leveraging weak assumptions on probability classes to characterize propensity score and selection probability. Compared to previous works, our results extend existing graphical identifiability criteria and offer a more comprehensive understanding of causal effect identification with strictly weaker conditions in the presence of selection bias.

Causal Representation Learning from General Environments under Nonparametric Mixing

Causal representation learning aims to recover the latent causal variables and their causal relations, typically represented by directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), from low-level observations such as image pixels. A prevailing line of research exploits multiple environments, which assume how data distributions change, including single-node interventions, coupled interventions, or hard interventions, or parametric constraints on the mixing function or the latent causal model, such as linearity. Despite the novelty and elegance of the results, they are often violated in real problems. Accordingly, we formalize a set of desiderata for causal representation learning that applies to a broader class of environments, referred to as general environments. Interestingly, we show that one can fully recover the latent DAG and identify the latent variables up to minor indeterminacies under a nonparametric mixing function and nonlinear latent causal models, such as additive (Gaussian) noise models or heteroscedastic noise models, by properly leveraging sufficient change conditions on the causal mechanisms up to third-order derivatives. These represent, to our knowledge, the first results to fully recover the latent DAG from general environments under nonparametric mixing. Notably, our results match or improve upon many existing works, but require less restrictive assumptions about changing environments.

Distributional Equivalence in Linear Non-Gaussian Latent-Variable Cyclic Causal Models: Characterization and Learning

Causal discovery with latent variables is a fundamental task. Yet most existing methods rely on strong structural assumptions, such as enforcing specific indicator patterns for latents or restricting how they can interact with others. We argue that a core obstacle to a general, structural-assumption-free approach is the lack of an equivalence characterization: without knowing what can be identified, one generally cannot design methods for how to identify it. In this work, we aim to close this gap for linear non-Gaussian models. We establish the graphical criterion for when two graphs with arbitrary latent structure and cycles are distributionally equivalent, that is, they induce the same observed distribution set. Key to our approach is a new tool, edge rank constraints, which fills a missing piece in the toolbox for latent-variable causal discovery in even broader settings. We further provide a procedure to traverse the whole equivalence class and develop an algorithm to recover models from data up to such equivalence. To our knowledge, this is the first equivalence characterization with latent variables in any parametric setting without structural assumptions, and hence the first structural-assumption-free discovery method. Code and an interactive demo are available at https://equiv.cc.

Latent Variable Causal Discovery under Selection Bias

Addressing selection bias in latent variable causal discovery is important yet underexplored, largely due to a lack of suitable statistical tools: While various tools beyond basic conditional independencies have been developed to handle latent variables, none have been adapted for selection bias. We make an attempt by studying rank constraints, which, as a generalization to conditional independence constraints, exploits the ranks of covariance submatrices in linear Gaussian models. We show that although selection can significantly complicate the joint distribution, interestingly, the ranks in the biased covariance matrices still preserve meaningful information about both causal structures and selection mechanisms. We provide a graph-theoretic characterization of such rank constraints. Using this tool, we demonstrate that the one-factor model, a classical latent variable model, can be identified under selection bias. Simulations and real-world experiments confirm the effectiveness of using our rank constraints.

Score-based Greedy Search for Structure Identification of Partially Observed Linear Causal Models

Identifying the structure of a partially observed causal system is essential to various scientific fields. Recent advances have focused on constraint-based causal discovery to solve this problem, and yet in practice these methods often face challenges related to multiple testing and error propagation. These issues could be mitigated by a score-based method and thus it has raised great attention whether there exists a score-based greedy search method that can handle the partially observed scenario. In this work, we propose the first score-based greedy search method for the identification of structure involving latent variables with identifiability guarantees. Specifically, we propose Generalized N Factor Model and establish the global consistency: the true structure including latent variables can be identified up to the Markov equivalence class by using score. We then design Latent variable Greedy Equivalence Search (LGES), a greedy search algorithm for this class of model with well-defined operators, which search very efficiently over the graph space to find the optimal structure. Our experiments on both synthetic and real-life data validate the effectiveness of our method (code will be publicly available).

Algorithmic Fairness amid Social Determinants: Reflection, Characterization, and Approach

Social determinants are variables that, while not directly pertaining to any specific individual, capture key aspects of contexts and environments that have direct causal influences on certain attributes of an individual. Previous algorithmic fairness literature has primarily focused on sensitive attributes, often overlooking the role of social determinants. Our paper addresses this gap by introducing formal and quantitative rigor into a space that has been shaped largely by qualitative proposals regarding the use of social determinants. To demonstrate theoretical perspectives and practical applicability, we examine a concrete setting of college admissions, using region as a proxy for social determinants. Our approach leverages a region-based analysis with Gamma distribution parameterization to model how social determinants impact individual outcomes. Despite its simplicity, our method quantitatively recovers findings that resonate with nuanced insights in previous qualitative debates, that are often missed by existing algorithmic fairness approaches. Our findings suggest that mitigation strategies centering solely around sensitive attributes may introduce new structural injustice when addressing existing discrimination. Considering both sensitive attributes and social determinants facilitates a more comprehensive explication of benefits and burdens experienced by individuals from diverse demographic backgrounds as well as contextual environments, which is essential for understanding and achieving fairness effectively and transparently.

Causal Discovery and Counterfactual Reasoning to Optimize Persuasive Dialogue Policies

Tailoring persuasive conversations to users leads to more effective persuasion. However, existing dialogue systems often struggle to adapt to dynamically evolving user states. This paper presents a novel method that leverages causal discovery and counterfactual reasoning for optimizing system persuasion capability and outcomes. We employ the Greedy Relaxation of the Sparsest Permutation (GRaSP) algorithm to identify causal relationships between user and system utterance strategies, treating user strategies as states and system strategies as actions. GRaSP identifies user strategies as causal factors influencing system responses, which inform Bidirectional Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (BiCoGAN) in generating counterfactual utterances for the system. Subsequently, we use the Dueling Double Deep Q-Network (D3QN) model to utilize counterfactual data to determine the best policy for selecting system utterances. Our experiments with the PersuasionForGood dataset show measurable improvements in persuasion outcomes using our approach over baseline methods. The observed increase in cumulative rewards and Q-values highlights the effectiveness of causal discovery in enhancing counterfactual reasoning and optimizing reinforcement learning policies for online dialogue systems.

When Selection Meets Intervention: Additional Complexities in Causal Discovery

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B tests on mobile applications target existing users only, and gene perturbation studies typically focus on specific cell types, such as cancer cells. Ignoring this bias leads to incorrect causal discovery results. Even when recognized, the existing paradigm for interventional causal discovery still fails to address it. This is because subtle differences in when and where interventions happen can lead to significantly different statistical patterns. We capture this dynamic by introducing a graphical model that explicitly accounts for both the observed world (where interventions are applied) and the counterfactual world (where selection occurs while interventions have not been applied). We characterize the Markov property of the model, and propose a provably sound algorithm to identify causal relations as well as selection mechanisms up to the equivalence class, from data with soft interventions and unknown targets. Through synthetic and real-world experiments, we demonstrate that our algorithm effectively identifies true causal relations despite the presence of selection bias.

Reflection-Window Decoding: Text Generation with Selective Refinement

The autoregressive decoding for text generation in large language models (LLMs), while widely used, is inherently suboptimal due to the lack of a built-in mechanism to perform refinement and/or correction of the generated content. In this paper, we consider optimality in terms of the joint probability over the generated response, when jointly considering all tokens at the same time. We theoretically characterize the potential deviation of the autoregressively generated response from its globally optimal counterpart that is of the same length. Our analysis suggests that we need to be cautious when noticeable uncertainty arises during text generation, which may signal the sub-optimality of the generation history. To address the pitfall of autoregressive decoding for text generation, we propose an approach that incorporates a sliding reflection window and a pausing criterion, such that refinement and generation can be carried out interchangeably as the decoding proceeds. Our selective refinement framework strikes a balance between efficiency and optimality, and our extensive experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.